Macro Tailwinds Drive Up Stainless Steel Prices, Nickel-Based Raw Materials Rise in Sync with Costs Holding Steady [SMM Analysis]

This week, stainless steel spot prices and production costs both strengthened and rose, with steel mills still maintaining a slight inverted spread. Taking 304 cold-rolled products as an example, based on the raw material prices of the day, the cash cost increased by approximately 56.68 yuan/mt this week, resulting in a loss ratio of 4.52%; when calculated using the raw material inventory cost, the cash cost decreased by about 63.65 yuan/mt, yet the loss rate remained at 4.13%.

On the nickel-based raw material cost side, high-grade NPI prices stopped falling and rebounded this week, ending the consecutive declines since August. NPI prices had previously fallen to low levels, leading to gradually strengthened firm price holding intentions among upstream players, and market inquiry activity recently increased. Although downstream steel mills, expecting production cuts, still had limited acceptance for high-priced raw materials, stainless steel prices rebounded during the week, and NPI prices stopped falling and turned upward. As of Friday, high-grade NPI with 10-12% grade rose by 7.5 yuan/mtu, settling at 888.5 yuan/mtu. In the stainless steel scrap market, stronger stainless steel futures drove spot prices higher. Combined with high-grade NPI ending its previous downtrend and rebounding, stainless steel scrap also strengthened accordingly. Although stainless steel scrap maintained an economic advantage over high-grade NPI, the advantage narrowed further. Expectations suggest certain resistance to further price increases ahead. As of Friday, 304 off-cuts prices in east China increased by 100 yuan/mt, with the latest quotations around 9,150 yuan/mt.

On the chrome-based raw material cost side, high-carbon ferrochrome operated basically stable this week. Although there were news of production cuts by stainless steel mills, actual implementation remained unclear. Despite pessimistic expectations in the ferrochrome market and subdued transactions during the week, retail quotations showed no significant adjustments yet, supported by high December tender prices. However, ferrochrome supply is already relatively loose, and producers still have good profits, with some acceptance for price reductions, indicating considerable downside risk for high-carbon ferrochrome prices in the future. As of Friday, high-carbon ferrochrome prices in Inner Mongolia increased by 50 yuan/mt (50% metal content), settling at 8,075 yuan/mt (50% metal content).